Core Groups Hold Steady for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Donald J. Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary with a strong showing among his core supporters — men, moderate conservatives, those without college degrees and older voters. … Hillary Clinton patched together a winning coalition in the Nevada caucuses of women, older voters, African-Americans, college graduates and members of […] Read more »

What We Learned From Nevada and South Carolina

1) Hillary firewall holds; Bernie hits his ceiling Despite a last-minute surge of “Bern-mentum” and weakening support among Latinos, Hillary Clinton put up a strong showing at the Nevada caucuses on Saturday thanks in part to strong support from African-Americans and older voters. … 2) Trump wins big and is […] Read more »

How Marco Rubio edged out Ted Cruz for second in S.C. (hint: Nikki Haley helped)

In South Carolina, Marco Rubio barely eclipsed Ted Cruz for second place, beating him by less than two-tenths of a percentage point with almost all votes tallied. The result confirms a late surge in polling for Rubio, and the network exit poll shows it was fueled by the upper-class pragmatists […] Read more »

Trump solidifies front-runner status, but who is his most dangerous rival?

South Carolina’s Republican primary often has had a truly clarifying effect on the party’s presidential nomination race. Saturday’s results appeared to fall short of fulfilling that role. At a minimum, the outcome here solidified New York businessman Donald Trump as the front-runner for the nomination, with his two leading rivals […] Read more »