The Four Corners Of The GOP (Trump Owns Three Of Them)

… Thus far, the two best predictors of GOP voter preferences have been white socioeconomic status and an area’s partisanship. Trump has performed best among non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic status, especially in blue areas. Meanwhile, Cruz has fared best in more conservative areas, Kasich has run best in blue […] Read more »

What to Look For in Tuesday’s East Coast Primaries

Opinion polls indicate Tuesday’s slate of Democratic and Republican primaries are likely to reaffirm the leads of the two front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the results Tuesday night will be about more than simple momentum; they will tell us a lot about the state of races that have […] Read more »

Trump, Clinton face divides in their parties even if they win nominations

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton expect to strengthen their claims on the presidential nominations in Tuesday’s primaries, but a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll underscores the serious challenges they face to heal divisions within their own parties. CONT. Susan Page & Jenny Ung, USA Today Read more »

The Deep Grooves of 2016

In the 2016 presidential campaign, the first cut has indeed been the deepest. An examination of the 22 state exit polls conducted so far by a consortium of media organizations indicates that the patterns of voter allegiance that emerged during the very first contests in February have largely persisted since. […] Read more »

Election markets: A big upward swing for Trump, a consolidation of a commanding lead for Clinton

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. […] Read more »