Lynn Vavreck is a brilliant political scientist from whom I’ve learned a great deal and from whom I still hope to learn much. However, I do hope Democrats do not take to heart her recent Upshot piece entitled, “The Myth of Swing Voters in Midterm Elections,” in which she argues, […] Read more »
Bursting the Democrats’ Midterm-Turnout Bubble
The Democratic midterm turnout problem is no secret. Young and nonwhite voters tend to stay home in off-year elections, leaving the electorate older, whiter and more Republican than in a presidential election. … Strong turnout operations can help Democrats at the margins. The Democratic turnout problem, however, is not marginal. […] Read more »
What College Towns Tell Us About Midterm Elections
… There are some unique challenges to reaching younger voters, who tend to move more often than the population at large. In a broader sense, these numbers suggest they just aren’t as interested in midterm elections, which don’t usually bring the excitement or coverage of presidential races. The difficulty in […] Read more »
How the Democrats Can Avoid Going Down This November
… A decade ago, Obama memorably rebutted the trope that the United States could be neatly cleaved into a red and a blue America that pits coastal liberals against inland traditionalists. But in one very measurable and consequential sense, there are two Americas. There is the America that votes in […] Read more »
Democrats seek to reshape midterm electorate along lines of a presidential year
… Democrats are banking on the belief that they can better identify potential supporters, motivate them and get them to the polls — in essence, reshape the midterm electorate to make it look more like the electorate in a presidential year. To try to do so, they will for the […] Read more »
Rich Suburbs Can’t Save Democrats This November
Last fall, Democrat Terry McAuliffe defied the odds and beat Republican Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. Democrats, already suffering from President Obama’s flagging approval rating and ominous Senate prospects, began hoping they could tune out other failures and use their strategy in that swing-state race as a template to […] Read more »