Data Availability Determines Whether Campaigns Focus On The Middle Or The Base

The primary season is here, the first Republican debates are in the books, and the presidential candidates are trying to persuade voters to support them. Persuasion happens a lot in primaries, but enjoy it while it lasts: Once campaigning for the general election begins, persuasion will mostly disappear, and mobilization […] Read more »

Meet the 21st-Century Political Alchemist Who’s Been Data-Mining for Hillary for the Past Two Years

When Mitch Stewart first became a field organizer, in 2002, it looked like the most anachronistic job a young man could seek out in a 21st-century campaign: managing and training volunteers for the work of phone banks and door knocks. At that point, the glamour job in politics was making […] Read more »

The fault is not in their models

I was a modeler before it was cool. Our firm brought modeling to Democratic poll data in the early 1980s, created the first micro-targeting models in the middle and late 1980s, developed the first state-level Senate forecasting model for use in resource allocation in the 1990s and built state-level presidential […] Read more »