… Separated by about 130 miles, one very large mountain range, and a huge cultural chasm, Issaquah and Wenatchee are two poles of the same electoral battleground: Washington’s Eighth Congressional District. There the race to succeed retiring Republican Congressman Dave Reichert encapsulates into one district both sides of the central […] Read more »
Educated white women were already recoiling from Trump. Then came Kavanaugh.
Even before Christine Blasey Ford delivered her controlled but explosive testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee last week, college-educated white women like her represented a rising threat to Republican prospects in the November election. But Ford’s detailed allegations of sexual assault against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh could allow Democrats […] Read more »
There’s a suburban tsunami driving 2018
Converging crises are compounding the risk that Republicans could suffer historic 2018 losses in suburban communities that could harden a starkly polarized alignment in American politics. Precisely as sexual abuse allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh threaten to deepen the GOP’s already cavernous deficit with well-educated white women, the […] Read more »
A Few Political Consequences of the Democratic Surge Among College-Educated Whites
The Pew Research Center recently released an informative report on the composition of the American electorate, based on a survey of citizens whose electoral participation (or lack thereof) in 2016 was confirmed by matching their names to state voter turnout records. … The national exit poll estimated that Clinton had […] Read more »
After Ohio special election, even more districts may be in play
Sometimes a close loss can be as telling as a surprise win, as the political world saw in the special election in Ohio’s 12th congressional district last week. Democrats failed to capture the seat, but the party’s near-miss may reveal something about the size of the wave brewing in the […] Read more »
What the Ohio result tells us about a big argument among Democrats
A number of analyses of the Ohio special election results — including the one offered by your humble blogger earlier today — focused on the outsize energy in the suburbs of Columbus, where Democrat Danny O’Connor ran up large vote totals, something that bodes well for Democratic chances this fall. […] Read more »