Where were you on the night of Nov. 8, 2016? If you’re like many political junkies, you were watching election night coverage and wondering not whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would win but might Clinton do so well that she’d win in places like Texas and Arizona. When she […] Read more »
The margin of error is bigger than you think
… A new study led by Houshmand Shirani-Mehr and Sharad Goel, assistant professor of management science and engineering, finds that the actual error rates of polls are about twice as high as their reported “margin of error.” CONT. Edmund L. Andrews, Stanford Engineering Magazine Read more »
It’s Time for Pollsters to Report Margins of Error More Honestly
… We’ve all read the disclaimers such as “The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.” My research has found that such statements influence the level of trust readers place in a poll’s results. Unfortunately, their trust is misplaced. A dirty […] Read more »
NOVA: Prediction by the Numbers
Predictions underlie nearly every aspect of our lives, from sports, politics, and medical decisions to the morning commute. With the explosion of digital technology, the internet, and “big data,” the science of forecasting is flourishing. But why do some predictions succeed spectacularly while others fail abysmally? And how can we […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: What’s So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
Nancy Pelosi has been a key figure in Republican attack ads for years, and this year is no different. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates why she is the focus of so much negative attention from the right (and often the left, too). The crew also breaks down the findings […] Read more »
Use of election forecasts in campaign coverage can confuse voters and may lower turnout
Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which candidate is ahead at any given moment but also estimates their probability of winning the eventual election. These […] Read more »