Using data from the 2012, 2014, and 2016 election cycles, Extreme Maps finds that partisan bias resulting largely from the worst gerrymandering abuses in just a few battleground states provides Republicans a durable advantage of 16-17 seats in the current Congress, representing a significant portion of the 24 seats Democrats […] Read more »
Democrats Are Overperforming In Special Elections Almost Everywhere
Republican Greg Gianforte’s 6 percentage point win in last month’s Montana special election was just ambiguous enough that both sides could find something to like. … Luckily, however, U.S. House elections aren’t the only special elections that have taken place this year. Since Trump took office, voters have gone to […] Read more »
Democratic Norms Are Under Attack, and Not Just by Trump
Shortly after last year’s election, Andrew Reynolds made a startling assertion. The University of North Carolina political scientist, who had helped devise a formula for measuring the vitality of democracies, wrote a newspaper column claiming his state’s restrictions on voting and its unwillingness to follow established rules “means our state […] Read more »
California: Most Favor Vouchers, Yet Most Give Local Schools Good Grades
A solid majority of Californians favor providing parents with tax-funded vouchers to send their children to any school they choose. At the same time, most give their local public schools good grades. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on education released today by the Public Policy […] Read more »
Special elections and the Trump Vote
Special elections for the Kansas 4th and Georgia 6th Congressional districts have drawn tremendous attention as harbingers of Republican and Democratic fortunes under President Trump. … A fundamental problem with focusing on these congressional seats is their small numbers which makes comparison and generalization to other districts difficult. We address […] Read more »
Forget Kansas. This chart shows why Republicans need to worry about 2018
Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what — if anything — the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November’s midterm elections. No matter where you come down on that question — I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in […] Read more »