Today starts a regular feature of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab called “Special Election Watch.” The idea is to follow special elections in 2018 as a guide to the extent of the Democratic swing in the November 2018 election. First, a couple of words of background, and then […] Read more »
Ending Gerrymandering Won’t Fix What Ails America
Gerrymandering. It’s become the embodiment of so many of the evils in the U.S. political system. Frustrated by the lack of competitive elections? Blame gerrymandering. Appalled by the growing number of ideological extremists in Congress? Blame gerrymandering. What about congressional gridlock? Gerrymandering did it. But gerrymandering — the drawing of […] Read more »
Politics Shouldn’t Be Like Open Mic Night
The number of Democrats aiming to unseat Republican incumbents in the midterm elections is rewriting the record books. According to the Campaign Finance Institute, by last fall the Democrats were fielding about twice the number of challengers as Republicans managed in 2009, the height of the Tea Party insurgency. More […] Read more »
Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections Since Trump Won the Presidency
This past Tuesday marked the 75th time a Democrat and a Republican faced off in a special election for a state or federal office since President Donald Trump won the 2016 election. The result in District 35 of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, a solidly Democratic seat in the Pittsburgh […] Read more »
The Great Lesson of California in America’s New Civil War
The next time you call for bipartisan cooperation in America and long for Republicans and Democrats to work side by side, stop it. Remember the great lesson of California, the harbinger of America’s political future, and realize that today such bipartisan cooperation simply can’t get done. In this current period […] Read more »
Drawing the lines on gerrymandering
“Goofy’s over there, and he’s kickin’ Donald,” said Bonnie Marcus. This is not a Rorschach test — and these are not patients. They’re suburban Philadelphia voters who live next door to Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, nicknamed “Goofy kicking Donald Duck” for its absurd shape: … This district is one of […] Read more »