For anyone wondering about the state of the Republican Party in California these days, consider this: There may be no Republican candidate for governor or United States senator on the state’s ballot this November. That dispiriting possibility is beginning to sink in for California Republicans, against the backdrop of a […] Read more »
How the US mid-terms could kickstart a new era of progressive reform
Get yourself into a totally different mindset when you try to understand this year’s US mid-term elections. Congressional elections are, of course, no rare thing. They happen every two years, and when the White House is not up for grabs, the President can normally expect a bit of a bruising. […] Read more »
Support for Gun Control Seems Strong. But It May Be Softer Than It Looks.
When you ask Americans in a poll whether they support universal background checks for gun purchases, huge majorities say yes. Ask them for a specific vote for such a legal change, and that support drops off. In recent years, there have been three true tests of this question. In Washington […] Read more »
The States Where Democrats Are Overperforming Most — And Least — In Special Elections
… Special election results so far this cycle are among the clearest portents of a Democratic wave in November. Democrats are beating their usual percentages of the vote not only in special federal elections (i.e., for the U.S. Senate and House), but also in special state legislative elections. … But […] Read more »
A House forecast holds good news for Democrats
We’re far enough into the 2018 midterm election cycle that we have some sense of what the fundamentals of the political environment that will govern it look like. A pretty simple forecast model that relies on economic performance and presidential popularity predicts Democrats will pick up 45 to 50 House […] Read more »
The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism
… Republican hopes these days rest on two things. First, their deficit on the generic congressional ballot seems to have declined from 13 points in late December to about 5 points now, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls. … The GOP’s second hope is that the economy will remain […] Read more »