Where Obama Has—and Has Not—Recovered

President Obama heads into his State of the Union address tonight enjoying reviving approval ratings from key groups in his coalition but still facing entrenched skepticism from the older and blue-collar whites who were crucial to GOP victories last fall. … Whatever the economy’s condition, African-Americans, Hispanics, and college-educated white […] Read more »

White-Out: Where Democrats Lost the House

Republicans have surged to their largest majority in the House of Representatives since before the Great Depression by blunting the Democratic advantage in districts being reshaped by growing racial diversity and consolidating a decisive hold over the seats that are not. Compared with 2009 and 2010, when Democrats last controlled […] Read more »

What does it take to win the Democratic nomination in 2016?

Get out your pitchforks, Democrats! A showdown over populism is coming. The core of the problem is the decline of Democratic support among white working-class voters. White voters without a college degree made up 36 percent of the midterm electorate this year. They voted nearly 2-to-1 Republican. … Now an […] Read more »

Jeb Bush’s 2016 Move Fuels Democratic Debate

… Jeb Bush makes discussion about the Democratic standing with the white middle class more relevant because he’s well-positioned to recapture ground with minorities in 2016. In a party that has grown more populist and militant, the former Florida governor would face a more arduous path to the nomination than […] Read more »