Donald J. Trump won the presidency by riding an enormous wave of support among white working-class voters. It was always a possibility, but it had looked highly unlikely. Hillary Clinton led in nearly every national poll — and in other surveys in the states worth the requisite 270 electoral votes. […] Read more »
The GOP’s class warfare mistake
The political landscape was ripe this year for a credible Republican alternative to Democrat Hillary Clinton. But that never meant that merely any alternative would do. Donald Trump failed to pass the smell test among general-election voters. Even if they had doubts about Clinton, they often had even greater doubts […] Read more »
Has the Balance of Power Shifted From the Rustbelt to the Sunbelt?
Since the photo-finish 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore that introduced the United States to the red-and-blue political map, the struggle between the parties for 270 Electoral College votes has resembled trench warfare. With most states locked down for one party or the other, both sides […] Read more »
Why the Election Is Close, and What Trump and Obama Have in Common
Donald J. Trump is in striking distance of winning the election with two days to go, and there’s really just one reason for that: He’s leading white voters without a college degree by a huge margin. In recent national surveys, Mr. Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 59 percent to 30 […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Juggling Act
Has the Democratic Party joined the Republican Party in becoming inhospitable to the accommodation of intraparty factions? Hillary Clinton must juggle three competing interest groups: her party’s upscale pro-trade, globalist wing; its underdog minority wing; and organized labor. She is paying a price for her triple allegiance. CONT. Thomas B. […] Read more »
The Great Democratic Inversion
For decades, Democratic presidential candidates have been making steady gains among upper income whites and whites with college and postgraduate degrees. This year, however, is the first time in at least six decades that the Democratic nominee is positioned to win a majority of these upscale voters. … From the […] Read more »