Throughout his political career, President Joe Biden has unfailingly presented himself as a product – and champion – of the middle class. As president, he has relentlessly touted his economic plan as a “blue-collar blueprint” to rebuild America and highlighted the number of new jobs tied to his signature policy […] Read more »
Trump’s hidden advantage in the GOP primary
Even amid all his legal challenges, Donald Trump has a secret weapon in his drive to win the Republican presidential nomination next year: polling strongly suggests he has transformed the GOP primary electorate in a way that will make him harder to beat. Since Trump’s emergence as the GOP’s dominant […] Read more »
Trump’s beer track advantage over Ron DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ pre-campaign campaign for president has hit the skids — particularly among key blocs of voters he’ll need to dethrone former President Donald Trump next year. Polls show Trump dominating his likely primary competitor among GOP voters in the so-called “beer track” — a shorthand for the […] Read more »
The Transformation of the American Electorate
Key Points• The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a pair of factors — race and education — have driven the changes.• The electorate has become more diverse and more highly educated. Democrats rely heavily on nonwhite voters and have improved with white college-educated voters, […] Read more »
Voters of color are a big reason Trump leads the GOP primary
Former President Donald Trump holds an average double-digit advantage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in national 2024 Republican primary surveys. That, in itself, isn’t notable given Trump, the frontrunner, has been ahead of DeSantis (by far his nearest competitor or potential competitor) since polling began about the race. But what […] Read more »
This is the dynamic that could decide the 2024 GOP race
The same fundamental dynamic that decided the 2016 Republican presidential primaries is already resurfacing as the 2024 contest takes shape. As in 2016, early polls of next year’s contest show the Republican electorate is again sharply dividing about former President Donald Trump along lines of education. In both state and […] Read more »