How did Hillary Clinton blow a 7-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump in the final month of the campaign? Much of the post-election analysis has revolved around FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Oct. 28. Less attention was spent on the role that Wikileaks played. Until, that is, news […] Read more »
The Comey effect
… In mid-October, I said I didn’t think Trump would clear 240 electoral votes, a statement I paid for later by eating a bug on CNN. My error seems to be accounted for by two events: (1) undecided Republican voters coming home, and (2) FBI Director Jim Comey’s letter to […] Read more »
Of emails and image
We’re accustomed to the trope that this year’s presidential election featured the two most unpopular candidates in history. It’s true, but it was not foreordained, at least not for Hillary Clinton, who, not so long ago, was the most popular public official in the country. However, her image was badly […] Read more »
In 2016’s Game of Musical Chairs, the Music Stopped at the Wrong Time for Clinton
… A tight election outcome might be said to have “100 fathers,” all of which may or may not have been decisive. … After the election, there have been several explanations offered for Trump’s surprising victory. These include Trump’s digital campaign efforts, the Clinton campaign’s neglect of the Rust Belt […] Read more »
As it turns out, James Comey is a great scapegoat for Hillary Clinton’s loss
There is no conceivable way that FBI Director James Comey’s last-minute update to Congress about the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server was beneficial to her. It was never likely to sway a lot of opinions, given that most attitudes on the subject had been formulated well before voting began […] Read more »
Clinton Leads Trump in Bloomberg Poll After Assembling More Diverse Coalition
… The final Bloomberg Politics national poll before Tuesday’s election has Clinton ahead of Trump, 44 percent to 41 percent, when third-party candidates are included. In a two-way contest, she’s also up by three points. Interviews were conducted Friday evening through Sunday afternoon, before FBI Director James Comey announced his […] Read more »