Carson Wins on Personality, Trump on Terror in Bloomberg Poll

Republicans overwhelmingly pick Ben Carson over Donald Trump for having the better temperament to be president, but they have far more confidence in the billionaire than the retired surgeon to take on terror, handle Russian President Vladimir Putin and fix immigration. The latest Bloomberg Politics national poll shows the two […] Read more »

The Big Issues Of The 2016 Campaign

With less than a year to go before the election, FiveThirtyEight’s staff members took a detailed look at seven issues we cover regularly, examining the positions of the presidential candidates and suggesting developments likely to arise before the voting takes place. CONT. FiveThirtyEight Read more »

Where Does The 2016 Race Stand Post-Paris?

In the wake of the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris there’s been a lot of chatter here in DC about their impact on the 2016 elections. Will the “outsiders” be pushed out as voters flock to more traditional and experienced politicians? Will terrorism and security, two issues that have fallen […] Read more »

The G.O.P. Establishment Has a Big New Hampshire Problem

The last two Republican presidential primary contests have followed the same script: A conservative candidate wins in Iowa, a relative moderate wins in New Hampshire, and the latter — with broader appeal and all of the establishment’s resources — outlasts the former in a protracted fight for the nomination. But […] Read more »

Republicans 2016: A Contracting List of True Contenders

… The threat of terrorism may be a vital issue in the primary and general election season next year, and that could be exactly what the GOP wants as it positions itself to run against Hillary Clinton, President Obama’s former secretary of state. … As we reassess the field, we […] Read more »

Yes, the media is to blame for the GOP primary mess

The presidential nominating process has become a reality television show: Political Survivor. It’s no longer controlled by political parties or primary voters. It’s controlled by the media. The essential features of the process are debates and polls. And money? Not really. Look at former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. He raised […] Read more »