No election in decades has offered more cause for humility among political prognosticators than the 2016 presidential race, now just weeks from its first real contests. A candidate dismissed as preposterous from the outset, celebrity businessman and GOP front-runner Donald Trump, has commanded center stage since July. Jeb Bush, the […] Read more »
One year, two races: Inside the Republican Party’s bizarre, tumultuous 2015
The year 2015 will be remembered as one of the most bizarrely compelling and yet genuinely unnerving in the nation’s modern political history. It is clear now that there were two halves to the year for the Republican Party: BT and AT, Before Trump and After Trump. From January to […] Read more »
Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts
You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »
Trump dominates GOP field heading into 2016
Donald Trump seems set to end 2015 as the dominant force in the race for next year’s Republican nomination for president, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz now a clear — yet distant — second after a strong debate performance, a new CNN/ORC poll released on Wednesday has found. CONT. Jennifer […] Read more »
State of election markets: Some meaningful movement in the Republican primary
There was some meaningful movement in the Republican primary this week as (market) front-runner Marco Rubio failed to consolidate support for yet another week and (market) second-place Ted Cruz continued to gain in the polls Iowa, the crucial test of the non-establishment. CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
CBS/YouGov online poll: Ted Cruz leads in Iowa; Donald Trump stays atop NH, SC
Donald Trump, the national front-runner, keeps his big lead in two of the three early states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, but now Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has moved past Trump into a lead of his own in Iowa. CONT. CBS News Read more »