Even a fairly calm spell in the polling, like the last couple of days, can give people opportunities to see what they want in the data. The most egregious form of this is cherry-picking the three or four polling results that you like best for your candidate. A vast majority […] Read more »
YouGov October Recontact Polls: A Round-Up
Between October 4th and October 11th, YouGov recontacted likely voters in twenty five states to find out how their vote intentions had changed since mid-September, when they were first polled. … Results of the October recontacts show that the presidential race has moved slightly in Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s favor […] Read more »
Gallup: Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters
Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday. While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after […] Read more »
WPA’s Election Update: 3 Weeks Left
… Of the six polls completed last week, two show a one point Romney lead, two show a two point Romney lead, and two show a one point Obama lead. Averaging across those polls shows a very close race with Romney leading by around two-thirds of a point. … That’s […] Read more »
No Guarantee of Obama Rebound in Second Debate
Pesident Obama was soundly defeated in the first presidential debate in Denver, contributing toward about a four-point swing toward Mitt Romney in head-to-head polls — enough to turn the race from one in which Mr. Obama had a clear lead into a very close contest. There are two theories about […] Read more »
Can a strong ground game help Obama stop Romney’s momentum?
More swing-state voters say President Obama’s campaign has contacted them in the past month than have heard from Mitt Romney’s campaign, and a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Obama leading by a whopping 40 percentage-point margin among voters contacted by an Obama representative. Romney leads by just 16 points […] Read more »