… One of the hallmarks of this campaign is the use of increasingly sophisticated — but not always accurate — data-mining techniques to customize ads for voters based on the digital trails they leave as they visit Internet sites. It is a practice pioneered by online retailers who work with […] Read more »
Obama May Not Need To Repeat 2008 Support From White Voters To Win
… As Election Day 2012 nears, Obama appears unlikely to come anywhere near to attracting the percentage of overall white voters he did four years ago. But that may not matter because of growth in voter groups much more inclined to back the nation’s first black president, members of minority […] Read more »
Swing state polling still makes electoral college arithmetic hard for Romney
There are 11 days left in the presidential election, and the picture is static. Mitt Romney and President Obama remain knotted in the national vote. Obama, however, maintains an edge in the all-important electoral college. The lead is small, but seemingly solid. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »
Who Gets Credit for the Recovery?
… There is still no guarantee that the economy is on a stable path to recovery, given its structural problems and the false starts of the last few years. But the odds that the recovery has finally begun have never been higher. Which is one more reason the presidential campaign, […] Read more »
Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest
Most polls at this moment suggest GOP nominee Mitt Romney is in the lead nationally, but surveys in the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama. So here’s a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency […] Read more »
How Will the Undecideds Break?
… I don’t really trust voters to tell pollsters when they have made a decision. Much of our decision-making is essentially subconscious. Instead, I am going to assume that undecided voters will gravitate to the choice that their preexisting opinions would predict. This assumption is actually a well-known finding in research […] Read more »