As promised in my last post on the September Model I’m be posting a rolling Electoral College forecast … based on past election results and October national and state-level trial-heat polls. As with the September model, these state-level forecasts were developed with Jay DeSart. … The results for today are: […] Read more »
The Impact of Anti‐Black Racism on Approval of Obama’s Job Performance and on Voting in the 2012 Election
… In this paper, we explore the extent of implicit and explicit anti‐Black attitudes in 2012 and the degree to which such attitudes shape the American public’s evaluations of Mr. Obama’s performance in office and their intentions regarding voting in the 2012 election. In doing so, we compare the current […] Read more »
Ohio, the Bull’s-eye State
… Ohio has played a central role in presidential campaigns for many years, but at no time has its significance been as great as in 2012. It is as if the entire presidential campaign is being waged in this complex and sprawling state. … A handful of other states remain […] Read more »
Virginia: Obama clings to slim lead
President Obama is clinging to a slender, four-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Virginia, as both sides ramp up already aggressive campaigns in the crucial battleground state, according to a new Washington Post poll. Obama outpolled Romney, 51 to 47 percent, among likely voters, although he lost the clearer […] Read more »
Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Marty Kaplan on Campaign Rhetoric and Reality
Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Marty Kaplan join Bill to assess the true value of the 2012 political debates, and weigh in on campaign communication tactics in the home stretch. Moyers & Company Read more »
10 keys to the presidential race (#1: Flohiva)
Now that the debates are over, the presidential horse race enters its home stretch. With Mitt Romney and Barack Obama locked in a statistical tie, both presidential candidates can control their political destiny. Here is a look at 10 factors that could decide the race. [cont.] Richard S. Dunham, Houston […] Read more »