If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the […] Read more »
55% ‘Wrong Track’ Matches 2004; A Difficulty for Obama, but Survivable
Days before the verdict on his bid for a second term, the bad news for Barack Obama is that most likely voters think the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track. The better news for Obama: Previous incumbents have survived the same challenge. [cont.] Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »
WaPo-ABC tracking poll: Most see U.S. on ‘wrong track,’ can Obama win?
Most likely voters see the country as seriously off-track; barely half say the president is doing a good job; and the challenger’s supporters rival the incumbent’s when it comes to being “fired up,” making for a precarious situation for President Obama as the election nears. But it is no sure […] Read more »
Coming Down to the End of the Line in 2012
… With the lack of a strong partisan wave favoring one party or the other, it’s unclear how undecided voters will break. This uncertainty is compounded by the fact that too many polls from normally reliable pollsters are contradictory. Sure, averaging all polls (as some do) is one way to […] Read more »
Half of Voters Say Obama or Romney Embodies Their Views
Slightly over half of U.S. voters have the same ideological views as either Democratic President Barack Obama or Republican challenger Mitt Romney (50%), or both (4%), while 17% perceive both Obama and Romney as more liberal than they are, and 11% perceive both candidates as more conservative than they are. […] Read more »
The Story of the Hispanic Vote Is the Story of the 2012 Campaign
… Obama’s reelection depends largely on whether he can maximize votes from friendly blocs of Hispanics, African-Americans, college-educated women, and young people—only this time as a graying incumbent weighed down by a dubious economic record instead of buoyed up as a hope-and-change-preaching senator making history. Demographic trends are moving in […] Read more »