72 hours from election day! Who’s going to win? Nate Silver says that “For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased.” I think this is correct. … That said, I do believe that there is a substantial chance that the state polls are a biased prediction of where […] Read more »
A Campaign Map, Morphed By Money
Campaign reporters spend a lot of time pointing at color-coded electoral maps like the one below, showing which states voted for Republican John McCain (in red) and Democrat Barack Obama (in blue) in 2008. But these maps lie — visually speaking. [cont.] Adam Cole, NPR Read more »
America’s Leftward Tilt?
… The reality is that our government hasn’t become this dysfunctional because the parties are so “polarized.” It’s because there is only one pole in American politics today, and its magnetic field is so powerful that it has drawn both parties in the same direction — rightward. And it is […] Read more »
Romney internal memo says ‘GOP enthusiasm’ will tilt election
In the face of poll numbers showing a challenging path to victory Tuesday, particularly in Ohio, Mitt Romney’s campaign is telling allies to talk up Republican chances in Democratic-leaning states while insisting that “GOP enthusiasm” will carry Romney to victory on Election Day. In a memo circulated Saturday to top […] Read more »
For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
… There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida. Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls […] Read more »
The 2004 October Surprise, and What It Means for 2012
John Kerry believed he would have been the 44th president of the United States had it not been for the surprise surfacing of a new Osama bin Laden videotape the Friday before the 2004 election (October 29). This was one of the few points of agreement between Kerry and George […] Read more »