The turnout assumptions of pollsters are increasingly under scrutiny, with the polls often showing Democrats with a persistent advantage in party-ID. Many hold that the polls assume an unrealistically high Democratic turnout, mainly based on the assumption that Democratic, young, and minority turnout was anomalously high in 2008 and can’t […] Read more »
Obama Gains Edge in Campaign’s Final Days
Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters. The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of […] Read more »
Ohio’s Provisional Ballot Order: The Biggest Legal Story of the Weekend
With just a few dozen hours left before polls open on Election Day, here is a candidate for the most important election-law story of the weekend — a story likely to cross over into the general political debate Sunday through Monday. This early copy from the Associated Press offered a […] Read more »
Obama has slight lead in electoral votes; Congress expected to remain status quo
On the final weekend of a fiercely fought presidential campaign, President Obama holds a narrow advantage over Mitt Romney in the crucial contest for the electoral votes needed to win the White House, even as national polls continue to show the candidates in a virtual tie for the popular vote. […] Read more »
Romney Rises in Favorability; Obama’s Pushback is Intensity
After lagging for months at historic lows, Mitt Romney’s personal popularity has advanced in the final weekend to its highest of the 2012 campaign, rivaling Barack Obama’s. But Obama pushes back with greater enthusiasm among his supporters – and the race itself remains a tie. Fifty-four percent of likely voters […] Read more »
WaPo-ABC tracking poll: All tied up as Romney draws even on favorability
President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney are once again tied nationally with just days to go in the 2012 campaign, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. Among likely voters, Obama and Romney are deadlocked at 48 percent. For the first time this year, the two […] Read more »