Gerson’s latest column contains a strange critique of quantitative approaches to elections and political science more generally. … There are two false dichotomies here. One is the measurement of opinion vs. the formation of opinion. … The second false dichotomy is between empirical inquiry and normative argument. [cont.] John Sides, […] Read more »
Election Update: Election Eve
Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning), someone is going to look pretty bad. It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls. Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and […] Read more »
LD Vote Predict final model: Obama 72.9 vs. Romney 27.1, among Latino voters
Over the final several weeks of polling … the LD Vote Predict estimates for presidential vote choice have been quite stable, leading us to our final projection for a breakdown among actual Latino voters who choose one of the two main candidates and no undecided voters: Obama 73%, Romney 27%. […] Read more »
A heavily weighted coin flip
If there is one thing America’s right- and left-leaning media seem to agree on as election day looms, it is that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in an exceedingly close and unpredictable race for the presidency. … Strangely, what might be the least controversial notion in contemporary American […] Read more »
WaPo-ABC tracking poll: Still a ‘margin of error’ contest
Heading into Election Day, likely voters divide 50 percent for President Obama and 47 percent for his challenger, Republican Mitt Romney, according to the latest, final weekend release of the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. A nail-biter throughout, the presidential contest remains closely competitive through its last days, even as […] Read more »
A Slim Edge Opens for Obama As the Closest Contest Concludes
Barack Obama has inched to a slim advantage in the closing days of the 2012 presidential race, breaking out of a long-running deadlock with Mitt Romney to a 50-47 percent contest in the final-weekend tracking poll by ABC News and The Washington Post. While still lacking a majority in vote […] Read more »