The 2012 presidential election confirmed an unpleasant fact about modern American politics: Americans are exceedingly polarized in their political beliefs. The U.S. electorate in 2012 was deeply divided ideologically — and it was reflected in their votes for president. [cont.] Stanley Feldman, Stony Brook, & Jeanne Zaino, Iona (CBS) Read more »
A Draw on the Economy, a Win on Empathy – and the Face of a Changing Nation
Barack Obama neutralized Mitt Romney on the economy, beat him on empathy and again turned the curve of America’s demographic change to Democratic advantage, winning a second term despite an unemployment rate that posed a major threat to his 2012 campaign. Deeply vulnerable on an economy that 77 percent of […] Read more »
Obama Wins by Marrying the New Democratic Coalition With the Old
President Obama won a second term by marrying the new Democratic coalition with just enough of the old to overcome enduring economic disenchantment and a cavernous racial divide. In many places, particularly across the Sun Belt, Obama mobilized the Democrats’ new “coalition of the ascendant,” winning enough support among young […] Read more »
So, what happened?
… As a researcher, I’m sad to admit that I let my hopes overtake the data. The facts, based on well-conducted survey research, always pointed to an Obama win. But many Republicans, me included, tried to find a way to argue that the data didn’t mean what it said on […] Read more »
Election Results 2012: Nate Silver on How He Got It Right
Nate Silver and Megan Liberman discuss President Obama’s re-election win. Read more »
Signal forecast goes 50-50 with Florida outstanding
Last February, the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama would win reelection with 303 electoral votes to his opponent’s 235–a prediction we made before the Republican party had chosen the identity of that challenger. This struck many people as absurd at the time: There were nine months of campaigning left, […] Read more »