Which voters’ Presidential preferences changed from 2008 to 2012? That straightforward question is central to making sense of yesterday’s election outcome—and yet it is a deceptively hard question. For example, consider the results from this year’s exit polls. They indicate that Hispanic voters backed President Obama by a margin of […] Read more »
Obama wins 75% of Latino vote, marks historic Latino influence in presidential election
… Latino support for President Obama was huge, with a record-breaking 75% of Latino voters nationwide (see below) casting their ballot for the President- the previous high for Latino voters was the 72% for Bill Clinton in 1996. Romney’s share of 23% was nowhere near the 38% his team identified […] Read more »
How Obama won
Barack Obama secured re-election by maintaining the coalition that gave him victory four years ago: black and Hispanic voters, young Americans, women and Americans with post-graduate degrees. These outnumbered Mitt Romney’s supporters among white men, older Americans and people who have not been to college. [cont.] Peter Kellner, YouGov, Model […] Read more »
How the pollsters won the 2012 US election, mostly
The election has come and gone. … The result was a big victory for many number analysts. I wrote Tuesday about the polling aggregates circling around 303-332 electoral votes for Obama, with Florida being the closest state. Florida ended up being the tightest state. … It should not be forgotten, […] Read more »
Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory
Barack Obama retained enough support from key elements of his base to win reelection, even as he lost ground nationally since 2008. In particular, Obama maintained wide advantages among young people, women, minorities, and both the less affluent and the well-educated. … Evidence of the demographic transformation of the electorate […] Read more »
Divided America Revealed as Women, Hispanics Back Obama
President Barack Obama successfully reassembled his diverse coalition of minority, women and youth voters to propel himself to a second White House term. The victory yesterday came even as the electorate remains divided like two foreign lands, split between men and women, whites and minorities, rich and poor, young and […] Read more »