President Donald Trump’s attacks on the mainstream media may be rooted in statistical reality: An extensive review of subscription data and election results shows that Trump outperformed the previous Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, in counties with the lowest numbers of news subscribers, but didn’t do nearly as well in areas […] Read more »
More than half of Americans think Trump will lose in 2020
A majority of Americans think President Donald Trump will lose his re-election bid in 2020, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, similar numbers to those facing former President Barack Obama at this point in his first term ahead of his re-election victory. CONT. Ryan Struyk, CNN Read more »
The Missing Obama Millions
Much of the political commentary since the presidential election has focused on two groups of party switchers: those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016 and those who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump voters who previously voted for […] Read more »
Economic satisfaction is booming, but it’s not boosting Trump
Americans are more satisfied with the state of the U.S. economy than they have been in nearly two decades, but their soaring economic enthusiasm has done little to soften the public’s personal dislike of President Donald Trump, a new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows. And […] Read more »
Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation
Partisan affiliation is one of the most stable features of the modern American electorate. While individuals’ feelings toward politicians or their attitudes about policy can change quickly, partisanship is a deep-seated identity resistant to change. Within the last five years, however, we have observed a significant amount of partisan switching […] Read more »
Could Roy Moore flip deep-red Alabama to blue?
As allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore multiply and polls suggest he could lose the senate race he once led by double-digits, political analysts offer one cautionary refrain: Remember, it’s Alabama and he’s a Republican. But a look at Moore’s last general election in the state shows its voters […] Read more »