… Credit where it is due to Team Obama. Recognizing the economic headwinds the president faced, it borrowed a page from Harry Truman’s 1948 campaign, accomplishing two goals simultaneously. … First, it played to its base with a level of intensity rarely seen in the modern era. “The war on […] Read more »
Demography Not The Only Reason Romney Lost
… If winning an election depends on appealing to and then turning out a base of old, white people you are going to lose every presidential election from here on out. That model may still be enough to help Republicans win midterm elections – older and white voters turn out […] Read more »
How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis
In his re-election victory, Democrat Barack Obama narrowly defeated Republican Mitt Romney in the national popular vote (50% to 48%). Obama’s margin of victory was much smaller than in 2008 when he defeated John McCain by a 53% to 46% margin, and he lost ground among white evangelical Protestants and […] Read more »
Improving National Outlook Key to Obama Victory in 2012
Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going and approval of the job Barack Obama is doing are below historical averages, and their economic outlook continues to be more negative than positive. Still, all of these measures are much improved from a year ago, helping the president narrowly win re-election. […] Read more »
Obama’s coalition, campaign deliver a second term
… Obama’s campaign, the most data-driven in the history of American politics, tweaked the electorate in enough places and enough constituencies to eke out victories in virtually every battleground state that had looked competitive on the eve of the election. Nothing was inevitable about the president’s victory. But against the […] Read more »
US election result a triumph for number nerds
… According to pundits, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama were on a knife’s edge – the race was too close to call, and the election count could take weeks. … Polling data analysts with a background in complex maths, rather than realpolitik, pored over poll after poll, to not only pick […] Read more »