… Much has been made of the increasing whiteness of the GOP coalition, with the implication being that Mitt Romney lost because he failed to attract enough support from ethnic or racial minorities. Without doubt, this was a problem for the GOP nominee and certainly made a difference in key […] Read more »
Obama Campaign Polls: How The Internal Data Got It Right
Summing up the lessons learned from a massive investment in data and technology, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has a blunt message for pollsters: “We spent a whole bunch of time figuring out that American polling is broken.” At a Politico forum on Monday, Messina spoke about the campaign’s “three […] Read more »
Today’s Politics: Coalition of Transformation vs. Coalition of Restoration
… In terms of shaping the Democrats’ long-term trajectory, by far the most important decisions Obama made this year were to dive into the powerful cultural and demographic currents transforming the American landscape. … For better or worse, this election more clearly stamped the Republicans as a Coalition of Restoration, […] Read more »
Where Obama and Romney Beat Their Polls
I’m traveling for Thanksgiving, so we’ll keep this relatively brief. But I thought this map was worth sharing. It shows how President Obama and Mitt Romney performed on Election Day relative to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts in each state, based on the ballots counted so far. [cont.] Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT) Read more »
The GOP’s Problem With Young Voters Is Only Getting Worse
While Mitt Romney missed benchmarks with many disparate demographic groups on Election Day, the Republican Party might be said to have a single, overriding challenge moving forward: to adjust to generational change. Over the last decade, a wave of new, diverse, and socially moderate voters has reshaped the electorate, allowing […] Read more »
How the 2012 election polling really was skewed – for Mitt Romney
… The national polls, as it turned out, were not systematically biased against Republican Mitt Romney. The final surveys pointed to President Obama’s re-election, and they were right. That does not mean, however, that the polls weren’t biased. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »