Income growth was slow through most of 2012, and prospective voters were correspondingly pessimistic about the state of the economy. So how was Barack Obama reelected? An important part of the answer is that perceptions of the economy became significantly less pessimistic in the fall than they had been in […] Read more »
Transcript of Nate Silver’s ‘Ask Me Anything’ on Reddit
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight took questions Tuesday on the popular social news site Reddit’s “Ask Me Anything” section. What follows is an edited transcript, with the questions and answers sorted into several subject areas. [cont.] New York Times Read more »
Holy Grail of Voters
After covering eight presidential and seven midterm election campaigns, I still manage to learn new things or come to view things differently. For many years, I have been fixated on independent voters as the political equivalent of the holy grail. But now I believe voters who describe themselves as moderates […] Read more »
The Emerging Democratic Presidential Majority: Lessons of Obama’s Victory
In this paper I examine the fundamental factors that shaped the 2012 presidential campaign and ultimately produced a fairly close but decisive victory for Barack Obama. I argue that the voting patterns seen in 2012 both at the state level and at the individual level reflected an increasingly partisan and […] Read more »
What If the Obama Campaign Didn’t Win Him the Election?
In the wake of the 2012 election, it’s become commonplace to credit Obama’s “formidable” campaign for his victory. I’ve already begun to challenge that narrative a bit. This post will continue to do so. [cont.] John Sides, George Washington U. (The Monkey Cage) Read more »
The 2012 Election: What Happened, What Changed, What it Means
In the fall of 2011, Barack Obama’s prospects for reelection did not appear bright. After the failure of his “grand bargain” talks with House Speaker John Boehner, his approval rating plunged to a new low. Economic growth was mediocre, unemployment remained stubbornly high, and the public’s confidence in the future […] Read more »