… That’s no guarantee the Democratic incumbent can survive the effects of tough economic times with the coalition that gave him a double-digit victory four years ago. But in Wisconsin and other competitive states, demographic changes add another variable to a campaign conversation that has largely revolved around high unemployment […] Read more »
The Media Doesn’t Understand Races in the States
… Obama is not enjoying a “commanding lead” in Pennsylvania – not in any meaningful sense of the term. Nor is he necessarily favored to win it. [cont.] Jay Cost, The Weekly Standard Read more »
Mormons Widely Favor Romney; Jewish Voters Back Obama
Mormon registered voters overwhelmingly support the candidacy of the first major-party presidential candidate of the Mormon faith, with 84% saying they would vote for Mitt Romney, compared with 13% who prefer Barack Obama. Obama, meanwhile, enjoys solid support from Jewish voters, 64% to 29%. [cont.] Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Read more »
‘You’re Likable Enough, Mitt.’
… Other things being equal, it is no doubt better for a candidate to be liked than disliked, but when other things are not equal, historical data suggest that a candidate’s likability is a relatively minor factor in deciding modern presidential elections. [cont.] Morris P. Fiorina, Stanford University (NYT) Read more »
Obama more trusted on terrorism, Romney on economy
In a dead-even race for the White House, a majority of American voters say their candidate must win for the country to get stronger. A Fox News poll released Thursday also finds Republican Mitt Romney tops President Barack Obama on economic issues, while Obama’s biggest strengths are mainly foreign policy […] Read more »
Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage
The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic […] Read more »