Despite the stagnant economy and broad dissatisfaction with national conditions, Barack Obama holds a significant lead over Mitt Romney. … The Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the 2010 Affordable Care Act appears to have had little effect on the 2012 race. But the decision has had a substantial impact on […] Read more »
Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men
The new Quinnipiac University and ABC/Washington Post national surveys out this week converge on one key conclusion: as the election nears, President Obama is sinking to historic lows among the group most consistently hostile to him. Throughout his career on the national stage, Obama has struggled among white men without […] Read more »
Fasten Your Seat Belts: Polarization, Weak Economy Forecast Very Close Election
… The estimates for the revised model indicate that in the current era of partisan polarization, the advantage enjoyed by a first-term incumbent is less than half of what it was earlier — about 2.5 percentage points instead of 5.2 percentage points. This is not only a statistically significant difference; it […] Read more »
Mitt Romney’s Central Qualification Becomes a Significant Liability
Mitt Romney’s business experience – the centerpiece of his case for the presidency – has proven to be much more of a liability than an asset in key swing states. Clear negative trends have emerged in recent polling conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia by Global Strategy Group […] Read more »
Obama’s Shrinking Majority
Elections are about numbers, and right now the president’s are bad. To understand why, consider 2008 as a reference point. That year, Barack Obama received 69,456,897 votes to John McCain’s 59,934,814. But a big chunk of President Obama’s 9.5 million-vote advantage is probably gone. Let’s break this down. [cont.] Karl […] Read more »
Likely Independent Voters: Who they are? And what do they think?
… Who actually are likely independent voters? Where do they stand on the issues? Are they more conservative? More liberal? Or somewhere in between? And finally, how do they perceive Obama and Romney on the issues? [cont.] Clifford Young, Ipsos Public Affairs Read more »