… There have been some arguments that the percentage of whites in this year’s electorate will fall from its 2008 level. That’s based on the belief that Latino communities are a growing segment of the American electorate. There is just one problem with that hypothesis: it’s not happening. [cont.] Harry […] Read more »
How to Read Post-Convention Polls: It’s Not Just About The Biggest Bounce
The post-convention polls are just a few days away and reporters are gearing up to see whether Obama or Romney will earn the biggest bounce. But while most will judge the bounces relative to historic expectations, there’s another metric to pay attention to: the share of the popular vote that […] Read more »
Ryan Speech Shows GOP Strategy On Medicare
… Despite Republican efforts to sell the Ryan plan since his selection, an ABC News/Washington Post survey this week found that white seniors opposed his approach by nearly 2-to-1. … But Obama’s health care law has also consistently faced enormous resistance from older whites. … As these competing anxieties collide, […] Read more »
Mitt Romney Brings Strengths and Weaknesses to GOP Stage
Soon-to-be-Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is about as well-liked as he has been during the presidential campaign, with 48% of Americans holding a favorable view of him and 46% an unfavorable view. … However, Romney still gets a lower favorability rating than President Barack Obama, 53% to 48%, in the […] Read more »
Romney in a Word: ‘Honest,’ ‘Businessman,’ ‘Rich’
As the American public has learned more about Mitt Romney over the course of the past year, his image has changed substantially. … Overall, 42% of the words volunteered by respondents are clearly negative, most commonly liar, arrogant, crook, out of touch, distrust and fake. Fewer (28%) offer words that […] Read more »
Measuring a Convention Bounce
Polling generally becomes more accurate as you get closer to Election Day. The exception to the rule is in the period immediately after the party conventions, when the polls can be a wild ride. In some past elections, candidates have received as much as a 25-percentage-point lift in the polls […] Read more »