For the past 12 months, I have said President Obama would lose his reelection bid, primarily because of the national discouragement reflected in the well-known and widely used “right direction” or “wrong track” question. Historical data says that candidates for president or governor facing an electorate that is majority-“wrong track” […] Read more »
Whither the independents
… For those focused on the internal dynamics of the election, the picture is anything but clear with respect to one of the most important segments of the electorate — independents. … The same polls that reveal relative consistency overall contain extraordinary variation when it comes to the votes of […] Read more »
Swing States Poll: Seven weeks out, it’s a very close contest
A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States, completed Monday night, shows Romney lagging President Obama by only 2 percentage points, 48%-46%, well within the survey’s margin of error and a point closer than their contest last month. … The survey also finds more voters open to changing their minds […] Read more »
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney nationally by 5 points
Fueled by increased optimism about the economy and nation’s direction, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points among likely voters and now sees his job-approval rating reaching the 50 percent threshold for the first time since March, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. The survey […] Read more »
Obama Convention Bounce Fades
The latest Gallup tracking data show that Barack Obama now leads Mitt Romney by one percentage point, 47% to 46% among registered voters, where the race was on Aug. 31-Sept. 3, before the Democratic Convention began. … It appears now that the Democratic convention was successful in boosting Obama’s standing […] Read more »
Romney Has Support Among Lowest Income Voters
Although President Barack Obama has a substantial voting edge over Republican Mitt Romney among low-income Americans, Romney still gets about a third of the vote among those whose household incomes are less than $24,000 a year. Although Romney does better on the other end of the income scale, Obama gets […] Read more »