The conventional wisdom on Obama’s recent surge is that it’s due largely to Mitt Romney’s 47% disaster, and there’s clearly something to this. … But it’s worth pointing out another dynamic that’s been overlooked here: The escalating disaster that is Paul Ryan. [cont.] Noam Scheiber, New Republic Read more »
Obama leads in N.H., tighter in Nev., N.C.
President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday. Obama’s leads in each of the states are fueled by voters’ improved […] Read more »
Most voters want change, even as Obama holds edge
The latest Fox News poll finds the race for the White House holds steady, with 48 percent of likely voters backing the Obama-Biden ticket and 43 percent backing the Romney-Ryan ticket, if the election were held today. That’s unchanged from two weeks ago, after the Democratic convention. [cont.] Dana Blanton, […] Read more »
The truth about 2012 polls
In the 2012 race for the White House President Obama is ahead, but the polls are misleading. … To be sure, Obama is ahead in this race. But by how much has become a serious point of contention and one that deserves further examination. [cont.] Doug Schoen, Fox News Read more »
‘Unskewing’ polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk
“The mainstream media is skewing its polls with too many Democrats because they want Obama to win.” Statements like this one are zipping around the internet a mile a minute these days. The general idea is that there are too many respondents identifying as Democrats in public surveys compared to […] Read more »
2012 Gender Gap Could Be Historic, But Maybe Not For The Reason You’d Think
A slew of new presidential polls released this week not only confirm a long-established gender gap among voters, but also suggest that the male-female preference divide in this year’s presidential contest could hit historic levels. It may surprise that that divide appears not driven by social issues and arguments over […] Read more »