… Presidential candidates have rebounded from downbeat polls before, especially when we are still five weeks from Election Day. So Romney’s problem is not just the recent Ohio surveys that show him losing to Barack Obama by as many as 10 percentage points. Instead, what is striking is the funereal […] Read more »
Within a Field Goal: Gerald Seib speaks with GOP pollster Whit Ayres
When it comes to analyzing current polls on the presidential campaign, veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres turns to a football analogy: Mitt Romney is behind but within a field goal for victory. “All these premature obituaries are really amazing if you look at just how close this race is,” Mr. […] Read more »
Analysis: Polling criticism unfounded
It’s a conspiracy theory of the highest level: media organizations allegedly manipulating data in public opinion polls to try and help President Barack Obama win a second term. Democracy crushed. The accusations are predicated on the idea that some media organizations are interviewing too many Democrats in their surveys, which […] Read more »
Youth Engagement Falls; Registration Also Declines
Young voters are significantly less engaged in this year’s election than at a comparable point in 2008 and now lag far behind older voters in interest in the campaign and intention to vote. … Not only are young registered voters less engaged, but fewer young people are registered to vote. […] Read more »
Before the Debates: A Polling Review
With the debates approaching – albeit their importance debatable – the most perplexing element of the 2012 presidential campaign is this: Barack Obama could win. The condition of the economy suggests otherwise. The general rule is straightforward; when economies are bad, incumbent presidents pay the price. This year, it’s not […] Read more »
For Americans, Being ‘Better Off’ Is a Matter of Perspective
“This president cannot tell us that you are better off today than when he took office,” Mitt Romney said as he accepted the Republican presidential nomination. Since then, “Are you better off?” has become a central theme of the campaign, and is likely to surface next week at the first […] Read more »