Mitt Romney’s campaign woes have taken a toll on Republican candidates in Democratic-leaning or swing states. Polls show that some Republicans who had been running ahead of Democratic opponents have now slipped into tight contests, while others who had been surging around Labor Day have now dropped behind. The impact […] Read more »
Is it Mitt Romney’s fault, if he loses?
On Friday morning, Politico ran an article that chiefly attributed President Obama’s lead to Mitt Romney and his failures. Salon’s Steve Kornacki came to the opposite conclusion and concludes that the fundamentals of this cycle made Romney’s task of deposing Obama quite difficult. So, which is it? [cont.] Harry Enten, […] Read more »
Using Debates to Turn Electoral Tide: Difficult but Not Impossible
History shows that candidates have different ways to score in presidential debates: the forceful put-down, the surprising show of skill, the opponent’s fumble, superior post-debate tactics. But it also shows that to fundamentally alter the direction of a campaign, a candidate usually has to accomplish all those things. [cont.] John […] Read more »
What Winning The ‘Catholic Vote’ Means Today
Since 1972, every single presidential candidate who has won the popular vote has also won the Catholic vote. But with Catholics making up one in every four voters, pinning down what exactly the Catholic vote is becomes tricky. [cont.] NPR Read more »
When it comes to polls, readers beware
As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican […] Read more »
Nate Silver: The polls aren’t wrong
We are drowning in polls and predictions. Whether it’s politics, sports, economics or even the weather, there’s more information and data than ever. But how much of it is white noise? How many of these predictions have rigor and mathematics behind them, and how many mask uncertainty or ideology behind […] Read more »