We now have fairly clear evidence that Mitt Romney received a substantial bounce coming out of last Wednesday’s debate. So how big was the bounce, why did it occur, why was it surprising, will it last, and what does it mean for the race going forward? [cont.] Harry Enten, The […] Read more »
Why Romney’s Debate Win May Be a Loss among Female Voters
The marked gender gap in support for Obama and Romney is hard to miss. A Pew Research poll in September found 56% of registered female voters favoring Obama and 37% favoring Romney—with no offsetting gap in Romney’s favor among male voters, who were evenly split 46% in favor of Obama […] Read more »
Romney Narrows Vote Gap After Historic Debate Win
Registered voters’ preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday’s presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters. … Those who viewed the debate overwhelmingly believe Romney did a better […] Read more »
Toe to Toe
… Romney’s rising poll numbers in the aftermath of the debate on Oct. 3 actually reveal the relative failure of Romney’s general election advertising. Millions of dollars in ads couldn’t do what one effective debate performance — and a dismal showing by the president — did. … No one knows […] Read more »
Romney’s Debate Win Doesn’t Make It 1980 Again
Mitt Romney’s winning performance in last week’s presidential debate has reinforced his campaign’s belief that this election parallels the one in 1980: In troubled times, Republicans inevitably defeat an unpopular Democratic president. While Romney gets to hit the reset button after President Barack Obama’s desultory display, he’d better not count […] Read more »
Before Debate, Poll Showed Obama Hitting Demographic Targets
If President Obama matches the 80 percent he won in 2008 among nonwhite voters, including African Americans, Hispanics, Asians and others, he can reassemble a national majority by attracting only about 40 percent of whites. As Democrats have become fond of saying, that is a matter of arithmetic, so long […] Read more »