Democrats have a great chance at picking up gubernatorial seats in November — but that doesn’t mean they won’t need to defend a few of their own. Last week, we showed why polls of governors races released so far should be taken with a grain of salt. This early in […] Read more »
Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign
The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of “Groundhog Day,” repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between “clear favorite” and “presumptive nominee.” CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
What to Look For in Tuesday’s East Coast Primaries
Opinion polls indicate Tuesday’s slate of Democratic and Republican primaries are likely to reaffirm the leads of the two front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the results Tuesday night will be about more than simple momentum; they will tell us a lot about the state of races that have […] Read more »
Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries
Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode […] Read more »
A State Sized Just Right to Contain Its Pride
… Poor Little Rhody. Not only is it the smallest state, it is often a punch line. And in many state rankings, it comes out on top for the wrong things, like having the nation’s highest rate of unemployment. Now comes yet another blow to the state’s fragile self-esteem. A […] Read more »
Politically, the south and New England really are two different Americas
We all know that are national politics are becoming more polarized: Democrats and Republicans are self-sorting into various regions and demographics, like north and south or urban and rural. There are few conservative Democrats and even fewer liberal Republicans. And yet few pay attention to state level politics, even though […] Read more »