Slight differences in turnout could change the outcome of tomorrow’s special U.S. Senate election in Alabama. According to the Monmouth University Poll , a standard midterm turnout model gives Republican Roy Moore a slight advantage. A higher, although less likely, near-presidential election turnout would give Democrat Doug Jones a slim […] Read more »
Most Americans doubt GOP bill will cut their taxes or boost the economy
Congressional Republicans are poised to pass the biggest tax overhaul in a generation, but Americans remain unconvinced that the measure will cut their own taxes or significantly boost the economy. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds just 32% support the GOP tax plan; 48% oppose it. That’s the lowest […] Read more »
Republican Party ID drops after Trump election
Donald Trump’s presidential win was a boon for the Republican Party in Washington, consolidating the GOP’s control of the Oval Office, Senate and House of Representatives. But beyond the Beltway, poll data suggests the election has had the opposite effect on the party, pushing voters away. From November 2016 to […] Read more »
Roy Moore’s Alabama
… I have closely studied Winston County history and have long been proud of my ancestral ties. I wanted to explore whether traditional Republicanism could fully explain how the Old South’s most independent thinkers became Trump zombies willing now to send a plausibly accused pedophile to the Senate rather than […] Read more »
Francisco Franco and the 2018 Republicans
… As of today, there are no brave souls in President Donald Trump’s inner, or even outer, circle volunteering to mention to him that the most recent four times that majority control of the House of Representatives switched from one party to the other — 1954, 1994, 2006 and 2010 […] Read more »
Poll Hub: The Future of Public Opinion Polls
With trust in the U.S. electoral system waning and indications of Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election looming, could public opinion polls assume a new role in American democracy? … Could public opinion polls be used, as in emerging democracies, to validate election outcomes? Poll Hub picks up that […] Read more »