Listen to cable TV or almost any political discussion these days and you’ll hear the term “the base” a lot. “Isn’t this all about Trump keeping his base happy?” or, “will the Democratic base accept a compromise with the president?” or, “which party has the most motivated base?” What we […] Read more »
Conservative Lead in Ideology Is Down to Single Digits
Continuing a quarter-century trend, the term “liberal” continues to catch up with “conservative” as Americans’ preferred description of their political views. Thirty-five percent of U.S. adults in 2017 identified as conservative and 26% as liberal, the first time the conservative label’s edge has been single digits. Its nine-percentage-point edge in […] Read more »
The Governors: Judge 2018 by the Big States
… In assessing 2018’s gubernatorial landscape, the question is not whether the Democrats will add more seats to their gubernatorial stable, but rather how many and which ones. The Republicans are at such a high-water mark that it will be hard for them to net seats. They are defending 26 […] Read more »
Are Democrats’ Senate Chances In 2018 Overrated?
After Democrat Doug Jones won a stunning victory in Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate last month, lots of smart people whose work I read and follow, such as The New York Times’s Nate Cohn, declared that the battle for Senate control in 2018 was a “toss-up.” Prediction markets […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Savior
One year ago, as Donald Trump was preparing to take the oath of office, Democrats were in disarray. Supporters of 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders were pointing fingers at each other, the Democratic National Committee was in disgrace, and Democratic voters were demoralized. Now, Trump has […] Read more »
Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms?
Democrats got the best of Republicans during the 2017 election season, outperforming expectations in special elections across the country and easily winning the only two governors races. Much of that success came down to turnout — the Democratic base came out and voted. It’s now 2018, though. A midterm year. […] Read more »