President Trump has proposed what he calls a “fair compromise” with Congress on immigration policy, with four main components: A path to citizenship for DREAMers — unauthorized immigrants who came as children A border wall with Mexico and increased funding for Border Patrol Ending the diversity visa lottery Banning US […] Read more »
The 7 Governorships Republicans Could Pick Up This Year
Democrats have a great chance at picking up gubernatorial seats in November — but that doesn’t mean they won’t need to defend a few of their own. Last week, we showed why polls of governors races released so far should be taken with a grain of salt. This early in […] Read more »
A House forecast holds good news for Democrats
We’re far enough into the 2018 midterm election cycle that we have some sense of what the fundamentals of the political environment that will govern it look like. A pretty simple forecast model that relies on economic performance and presidential popularity predicts Democrats will pick up 45 to 50 House […] Read more »
Big Republican Advantages Are Eroding in the Race for House Control
The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot has slipped over the last few weeks. But Republicans have gradually lost advantages of their own. Slowly but surely, the considerable structural advantages — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — that give the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election […] Read more »
The Generic is Falling! The Generic is Falling!
I hear it all the time these days. The Democratic electoral wave is petering out. The generic ballot shows the Democratic advantage is cratering. President Donald Trump’s job approval is up. Voters are giving the president more and more credit for the economy’s strength. Lighten up, political junkies, the election […] Read more »
Democrats Can Win on Immigration
… In their quest to retake the House or the Senate (or both), Democrats should not shy away from incorporating and welcoming immigrants into their own rhetoric. When Republicans embark on meanspirited immigrant bashing, Democrats should take notes from Harry Reid’s 2010 re-election victory in Nevada and Ralph Northam’s 2017 […] Read more »