This is turning out to be a fascinating midterm election, pitting the Democratic wave against the Republican seawall. Historic midterm voting patterns combined with national, state, and district-level polling data and off-year election results are combining to make a strong case for a classic midterm wave—obviously not what Republicans want […] Read more »
Nearly half of Americans agree with Nancy Pelosi’s ‘crumbs’ comment, according to a poll by a pro-Trump group
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has earned the ire of Republicans for suggesting that major corporations are giving workers “crumbs” while top executives reap bonuses after passage of the GOP’s tax revision plan. But a new poll from a group supportive of President Trump finds nearly half of Americans […] Read more »
Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats
If elections and national surveys over the past year have shown us anything, it is that suburban voters could well be the key to the 2018 midterm House elections. Turnout among minority voters and younger voters could affect the result in a district here or there, but an increase in […] Read more »
Dark money group America First Policies is running a pro-Trump polling operation. Here is an inside look at its secretive work.
America First Policies, a nonprofit group with close ties to President Donald Trump, has hired Trump’s pollsters to conduct a wide range of political polling and research that experts say resembles the kind of expensive work the Republican National Committee has performed for prior GOP administrations. Such a practice breaks […] Read more »
What Motivates Voters More Than Loyalty? Loathing
Hostility to the opposition party and its candidates has now reached a level where loathing motivates voters more than loyalty. The building strength of partisan antipathy — “negative partisanship” — has radically altered politics. Anger has become the primary tool for motivating voters. Ticket splitting is dying out. But perhaps […] Read more »
Democrats’ Biggest Threat in 2018
The biggest threat to Democrats in the 2018 election may be the risk of repeating their biggest mistake in the 2016 election. That mistake was Hillary Clinton’s decision to focus almost all of her effort on convincing voters that Donald Trump did not share their values, while failing to effectively […] Read more »