Donald Trump’s road to the White House was complicated, but it went directly through the Middle Suburbs, a collection of blue-collar suburban counties heavily based in the Industrial Midwest. Now a combination of polling data and election results suggests those communities have lost their enthusiasm for President Trump and Republicans. […] Read more »
Democrats hold double-digit lead for 2018 midterm elections
Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage over Republicans in congressional preference for the 2018 midterm elections, even as President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has ticked up, the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds. … Also in the poll, the most popular political figures and institutions are the Federal […] Read more »
NBC/WSJ Poll shows trouble for GOP in key suburban districts
President Donald Trump’s job approval is up to 43 percent in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, but Republicans are seeing their 2018 prospects worsen. The poll shows people favor Democratic control of Congress by 10 points – 50 percent to 40 percent – up 6 points from last […] Read more »
What Happened in Pennsylvania’s 18th and What It Means for Democrats in November
… This post offers a quick rundown of the data in PA-18 and speculates about the consequences for Republicans in November. How did Lamb win? What does that mean for the 2018 midterms? First, the obvious. Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional district is ruby red — or so we thought. Donald Trump […] Read more »
The old tea party may be over, but the new one is at peak power
The tea party was over, we thought. Not quite a decade old, the right-wing populist movement that once seemed poised to be an enduring force in national politics had burned out, overtaken by a more virulent strand of populism led by President Trump. But when Trump dismissed Rex Tillerson as […] Read more »
Forms of polarization
We regularly hear that American politics is polarized. Those doing the talking mean very different things by the term. Some look at any 50/50 division as “polarized,” though such a definition does not comport particularly well with the history of the term. For others, polarization refers to deep differences. That […] Read more »