Sometimes a close loss can be as telling as a surprise win, as the political world saw in the special election in Ohio’s 12th congressional district last week. Democrats failed to capture the seat, but the party’s near-miss may reveal something about the size of the wave brewing in the […] Read more »
The White Strategy: Trump’s winning coalition and its weaknesses
In the aftermath of the 2012 election, when just about everyone assumed Mitt Romney lost because he didn’t win enough Hispanic votes, the election analyst Sean Trende produced a dissenting take. A close look at the results across the Midwest and Appalachia revealed a large population of what Trende called […] Read more »
Parsing Ohio’s 12th: Neither Party Should Rush to Conclusions Just Yet
In 1982, as a young opposition researcher at the National Republican Congressional Committee, one of “my candidates” was an equally young John Kasich running in Ohio’s 12th District. He was the only GOP challenger to win in that first off-year election of the Reagan presidency, and Republicans have held the […] Read more »
Poll Hub: An Interview with Senator Charles Schumer
Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) joins this week’s episode of Poll Hub. In this critical midterm election cycle for Democrats Senator Schumer assesses his party’s chances of reclaiming Congress, shares why he thinks the battle for the House and the Senate is close, and discusses what the Democrats are doing […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information
Abstract: We forecast party control of the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm election. First, we model the expected national vote relying on available generic Congressional polls and the party of the president. Second, we model the district vote based primarily on results from 2016 and the national swing. […] Read more »
The House: Ratings Changes in the Aftermath of Another Nail-Biter Special Election
Is there such a thing as a moral victory in politics? Democrats hope so in OH-12. While the race remains uncalled, it appears as though state Sen. Troy Balderson (R) will squeak by Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) in a closely-watched special election in this traditionally Republican district that […] Read more »