Democrats have improved their standing in the fight for control of the House of Representatives. Our House model now shows the party poised to win 222 seats if the election were today, up from our estimate of 219 earlier this summer. The range on that estimate is plus or minus […] Read more »
Booming Economy May Be Little Felt as Voters Decide
Republicans are telling you that tax cuts and roaring economic growth are going to stop any “blue wave” in the midterm elections. Democrats say the lack of wage growth, even as corporate profits surge, will impel voters to change leadership in Congress. It’s not that simple. A new survey of […] Read more »
Republicans and Democrats are more polarized on immigration than parties in the U.K. or Australia. Here’s why.
The family separation policy, the “travel ban,” the threat of a government shutdown if Congress doesn’t fund a border wall: Both as candidate and now as president, Donald Trump has consistently made his opposition to immigration the center of his politics. Of course, he’s not the only politician to do […] Read more »
The Women Who Gave Trump the White House Could Tip the Midterms to Democrats
When Donald Trump this week publicly disparaged his former aide Omarosa Manigault-Newman as a “dog,” he crystallized again the belligerent style and volatile behavior that has exposed Republican candidates in November to the risk of a crushing backlash among women. The most important unanswered question for the midterm election may […] Read more »
As Midterms Near, Democrats Are More Politically Active Than Republicans
Across a range of political activities – from attending political rallies to donating to campaigns – voters who back Democratic candidates for Congress are reporting higher levels of political activity than GOP voters. But both sets of voters share a view that the upcoming election is important: About three-quarters in […] Read more »
A Few Political Consequences of the Democratic Surge Among College-Educated Whites
The Pew Research Center recently released an informative report on the composition of the American electorate, based on a survey of citizens whose electoral participation (or lack thereof) in 2016 was confirmed by matching their names to state voter turnout records. … The national exit poll estimated that Clinton had […] Read more »