Today, we launched The Forecast. We’ll be letting you know, based on our data analysis, who is favored to win and lose in House and Senate races through the election. We’ll be aggregating those individual estimates to forecast who has the best chance of controlling the House and Senate. … […] Read more »
The Kavanaugh Aftermath
There was never any danger of me becoming a physics major but I remember, from my one class on the subject, Sir Isaac Newton’s third law of motion: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. In terms of the impact of the Brett Kavanaugh nomination fight, there […] Read more »
Memo to GOP: You’ve Got a Winning Message and It’s Not Pelosi
Republicans have a great economic story to tell if they are willing to tell it. They have less than a month to make their case to voters that the economic policies that House Republicans began pushing in 2010 are finally paying off. Now is the time to reinforce success, not […] Read more »
Evaluating Enthusiasm With Less Than a Month to Go
Back in 2016, lots of people, myself included, thought that Trump’s “all-base-all-the-time” strategy was ill-conceived. Sure, it would motivate his supporters, but it would also juice up turnout by Democrats and turn off critical swing/independent voters. In the end, however, Trump’s one-sided intensity focus worked because there was not an […] Read more »
Walker trails in race for Wisconsin governor
Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is behind by double digits in his re-election bid, while Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is comfortably ahead as a near majority of likely voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the state. CONT. Mark Murray, […] Read more »
Republicans Abandon Vulnerable Lawmakers, Striving to Keep House
… As they brace for losses in the House of Representatives, Republican Party leaders are racing to reinforce their candidates in about two-dozen districts, trying to create a barricade around their imperiled majority. … Republicans steering the House effort, who insisted on anonymity to discuss party strategy, believe that by […] Read more »