This is a difficult article to write. Not for any deeply personal reason, but just because I’m not quite sure what I’m supposed to lead with — the most likely outcome or the uncertainty around that outcome. Either way, there’s the potential for misunderstanding. People can mentally “round up” high […] Read more »
A spate of House polls reinforces good news for the Democratic Party
As the midterm elections approached, the New York Times undertook an interesting experiment: It would conduct polling in dozens of House districts, showing users the results in real time. Partnering with Siena College’s polling team, the idea was that users would gain a better understanding of how poll results are […] Read more »
Final House Ratings: 75 Competitive Races, Ten Rating Changes
With Election Day finally upon us, the House battlefield is wider and more lopsided than at any time since 2010, when Republicans won their current majority. We rate 75 races as competitive, including 70 GOP-held seats and just five held by Democrats. A “Red Exodus” is contributing to the potential […] Read more »
It’s Not Easy to Predict How Immigration Will Affect the Midterms
In the closing days of the campaign for the midterms, President Trump has clearly decided that immigration should be the central issue of this election. … Mr. Trump’s focus on immigration has had real consequences, even though congressional candidates across the country have chosen to focus on other issues, like […] Read more »
Trump’ GOP: Election Eve
President Donald Trump closed this campaign by warning of the grave danger people faced from criminal and violent immigrants and from the Democratic leaders who supported open borders and sanctuary cities. We think you will find that when the votes are all counted, Donald Trump and the GOP will have […] Read more »
A new poll shows the secret truth of 2018: Not much has changed in months
Here’s a remarkable thing about the 2018 election campaign: how little has changed. That is the lesson from the third George Washington University Politics Poll, which was just released today. I think most people know that we live in a world of strong partisanship, which is increasingly evident in congressional […] Read more »