The 2018 campaign (mostly) comes to an end today. If the polls and our forecasts are right, the Democrats and Republicans will each have something to be happy about. Democrats are favored to take back the House, while Republicans are favored to maintain control of the Senate. Our final House […] Read more »
The two Americas are on a collision course today
Two Americas could render diametrically opposed verdicts on President Donald Trump’s tumultuous first two years in today’s election. From one direction, Trump faces intense antipathy among young people and minority voters and unusually broad resistance among college-educated white voters, especially women. That threatens Republicans with widespread losses in well-educated, often […] Read more »
Our Final Forecast In The Senate, House And Gubernatorial Races
Happy Election Day! The last of the polls are in, and it’s finally pencils down for FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 midterm forecast. Here are our final forecasts: CONT. Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Why Trump’s unpopularity may not be the handicap you’d expect
The Republican Party comes into Election Day with a significant handicap. The party’s leader, the man in the White House, is less popular nationally coming into a midterm election than any president since 1974, save one: George W. Bush in 2006, whose popularity in 2002 had vanished four years later […] Read more »
Why on-the-fence voters say they are supporting Democrats or Republicans for Congress
Americans faced an onslaught of polling numbers this fall — which we warned you about — but with Election Day upon us, let’s take one final look at voters’ explanations for their congressional vote choices in their own words, particularly those who were on the fence in the final week […] Read more »
Two Visions of Patriotism Clash in the Midterm Elections
President Trump has spent his 21 months in office labeling his critics as unpatriotic. … As the nation goes to the polls in what is widely seen as a referendum on the president’s conduct, policies and character, both his supporters and his opponents are expressing sharply contrasting views on issues […] Read more »