In the days immediately after the 2018 elections the most widely circulated analysis held that along with high turnout among minority voters the significant Democratic gains in the House of Representatives and in a range of state level elections were the result of the significant defection from the GOP of […] Read more »
Trump thinks he is winning on immigration. The election results prove him wrong.
Despite major defeats in 2018, President Trump and his Republican supporters are still screaming about so-called border security, demonizing migrants, unleashing tear gas on asylum-seekers and demanding billions in taxpayer money for a wall. It’s as though Mr. Trump continues to see himself descending that escalator in 2015 to bash […] Read more »
How Republicans Misplayed Their Primaries
… One of my favorite sayings is from my friend, the very wise columnist Mark Shields, who is fond of saying that he would rather be a member of a church seeking converts than one trying to drive out heretics. This is not at all to argue that incumbents should […] Read more »
What We Should Look for and What We Can Ignore in 2020 Polling
I’m not going to mince words here. Early horse race polls are silly. Tracking ‘movement’ among a bunch of potential 2020 candidates a year of out from when voters go the polls is an utter waste of time. However, while the head-to-head numbers are irrelevant, it is useful to mine […] Read more »
Donald Trump is well positioned to fend off a primary challenge in 2020
President Donald Trump continues to look in prime position to win his party’s nomination for president in 2020. While Republicans such as John Kasich may run, a look at the numbers reveals they have a tough road ahead of them. CNN’s latest Iowa poll shows little room for a successful […] Read more »
A new theory for why Republicans and Democrats see the world differently
“Of the many factors that make up your worldview, one is more fundamental than any other in determining which side of the divide you gravitate toward: your perception of how dangerous the world is. Fear is perhaps our most primal instinct, after all, so it’s only logical that people’s level […] Read more »