Republicans’ special election victory Tuesday in North Carolina’s 9th District is the latest evidence that 2020 will be a very different election from 2018. Rep.-elect Dan Bishop didn’t just overcome his Democrat opponent’s two-year head start and millions of dollars in out-of-state money. He also outperformed the GOP candidate’s 2018 […] Read more »
High Stakes in Virginia General Assembly Election will Preview 2020 Presidential
In the wake of the Blue Tsunami that crashed through Virginia on election night in November 2017, the state’s Democrats found their political fortunes in the House of Delegates dramatically transformed. … With two post-Trump elections behind them, both of which had produced large turnout surges for Democrats and sympathetic […] Read more »
2019 special elections haven’t been as good for Democrats
The supposed smart take from the special election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District is that Republican Dan Bishop underperformed compared to President Donald Trump’s 2016 performance in the district. Bishop won by 2 points while Trump won by 12 points, which is supposed to indicate that the national political […] Read more »
The House’s Republican Bias: Does it Exist?
The Republican Party’s structural advantage in federal elections has been well documented in liberal circles. Democrats argue that Republicans have so heavily gerrymandered the House that the institution’s legitimacy is at stake. But do Democrats really face a structural disadvantage in House elections? Two measures of bias — the Median […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Biden leads as Warren and Sanders battle for second on eve of debate
Joe Biden leads the Democratic presidential primary but a tight race for second place has formed behind him as Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads Sen. Bernie Sanders by one point, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The former vice president is at 24%, Warren at 18% and Sanders […] Read more »
Five Takeaways from Republicans’ Narrow NC-09 Escape
Republicans narrowly averted disaster as GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop eked out a 51 percent to 49 percent win over Democrat Dan McCready in North Carolina’s 9th CD, where an absentee ballot fraud scandal last fall required a new election. But Tuesday’s results were nothing to brag about: Bishop and […] Read more »