… The political dividing line in America used to be between cities, which were mostly Democratic, and suburbs, which had long been Republican. But today it runs through the very center of the suburbs themselves, between a densely populated inner ring that is turning blue and a more spacious outer […] Read more »
Little Reason to Think Republicans Will Abandon Trump Now
Despite the saying—usually misattributed to Albert Einstein—that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” it is a bit rash to declare crazy those who for three years have regularly predicted that the latest controversy or transgression would drive congressional Republicans to finally turn […] Read more »
The Path to 270 in 2020
The election of President Donald Trump in 2016 defied many normal rules of presidential political strategy and electoral analysis. … The big question heading into 2020 is whether President Trump and Republicans can repeat this success. Is there a strong and growing Trump coalition that can replicate his successes with […] Read more »
Can Warren Beat Trump?
Chat with almost any political professional in and around Washington, and you find something of a consensus building on the following: 1. Elizabeth Warren is going to be the nominee.2. She’s going to have a hard time beating Trump. Last week, I spent time looking at the first point. Today, […] Read more »
Trump Has No Room for Error in 2020
The risk in Donald Trump’s base-first electoral strategy is only rising—because the size of his base is shrinking. Working-class whites are on track to continue declining as a share of eligible voters in 2020, according to a study released today by the liberal think tank Center for American Progress. In […] Read more »
Democrats may come to regret choosing impeachment over independents
Put yourself, for a moment, in the shoes of average independent American voters in fly-over country where next year’s election is likely to be decided. Many, if not most, are probably feeling trapped by what amounts to a constant barrage of white noise coming out of Washington these days. Ukraine. […] Read more »